A Milestone, the Gambler’s Fallacy, and Summer’s End

These few news items mark the end of the Summer of 2025.


My July column for Skeptical Inquirer was a look back at two related bits of irrationality: the Hot Hand and the Gambler’s Fallacy, both of which are based on the mistaken belief that independent events are not independent. Recent research suggests that, with respect to the Hot Hand—the belief that certain athletes get “hot” and can’t seem to miss—the athletes were right all along and the scientists were wrong.


Although the date slipped past without my noticing it, back in December of 2024, I clocked ten years writing for Skeptical Inquirer magazine. Once I noticed the anniversary, I wrote a column to memorialize the event. Writing for SI has been one of the great joys of my career. As long as I am able, I hope to keep writing the “Behavior & Belief” column.


I am writing this on August 24, undeniably the last few days of summer. Labor Day weekend is a week away. For the last several days, I’ve been singing John Prine’s song, Summer’s End. I wanted to include a YouTube video of the song in this message, and I watched several versions before making a choice. As beautiful as the song is, it is quite sad, and I cannot watch these videos without crying. The “come on home” chorus brings out the emotions every time. Finally, I chose this arrangement by Irish singers Paul Noonan, Lisa Hannigan, and Gemma Hayes. They divide the parts nicely and sing in wonderful harmony.

S

I am particularly fond of several lines of the song, for example, this couplet:

Well, you never know how far from home you’re feelin’
Until you’ve watched the shadows cross the ceilin’

And this final verse:

The moon and stars hang out in bars just talkin’
I still love that picture of us walkin’
Just like that ol’ house we thought was haunted
Summer’s end came faster than we wanted


I hope you squeeze as much joy as possible out of these last days of summer.

SV